Estimating the Risk of Technology Development

This viewgraph presentation introduces a methodology for incorporating risk analysis and technology assessment in the evaluation of research and development projects

Report of the Horizontal Launch Study

A study of horizontal launch concepts has been conducted. This study, jointly sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) was tasked to estimate the economic and technical viability of horizontal launch approaches. The study team identified the key parameters and critical technologies which determine mission viability and reported on the state of the art of critical technologies, along with objectives for technology development

A Tool for the Automated Design and Evaluation of Habitat Interior Layouts

The objective of space habitat design is to minimize mass and system size while providing adequate space for all necessary equipment and a functional layout that supports crew health and productivity. Unfortunately, development and evaluation of interior layouts is often ignored during conceptual design because of the subjectivity and long times required using current evaluation methods (e.g., human-in-the-loop mockup tests and in-depth CAD evaluations). Early, more objective assessment could prevent expensive design changes that may increase vehicle mass and compromise functionality. This paper describes a new interior design evaluation method to enable early, structured consideration of habitat interior layouts. This interior layout evaluation method features a comprehensive list of quantifiable habitat layout evaluation criteria, automatic methods to measure these criteria from a geometry model, and application of systems engineering tools and numerical methods to construct a multi-objective value function measuring the overall habitat layout performance. In addition to a detailed description of this method, a C++/OpenGL software tool which has been developed to implement this method is also discussed. This tool leverages geometry modeling coupled with collision detection techniques to identify favorable layouts subject to multiple constraints and objectives (e.g., minimize mass, maximize contiguous habitable volume, maximize task performance, and minimize crew safety risks). Finally, a few habitat layout evaluation examples are described to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method and tool to influence habitat design

Selection of Thermal Worst-Case Orbits via Modified Efficient Global Optimization

Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) was used to select orbits with worst-case hot and cold thermal environments for the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III. The SAGE III system thermal model changed substantially since the previous selection of worst-case orbits (which did not use the EGO method), so the selections were revised to ensure the worst cases are being captured. The EGO method consists of first conducting an initial set of parametric runs, generated with a space-filling Design of Experiments (DoE) method, then fitting a surrogate model to the data and searching for points of maximum Expected Improvement (EI) to conduct additional runs. The general EGO method was modified by using a multi-start optimizer to identify multiple new test points at each iteration. This modification facilitates parallel computing and decreases the burden of user interaction when the optimizer code is not integrated with the model. Thermal worst-case orbits for SAGE III were successfully identified and shown by direct comparison to be more severe than those identified in the previous selection. The EGO method is a useful tool for this application and can result in computational savings if the initial Design of Experiments (DoE) is selected appropriately

Launch Vehicle Propulsion Design with Multiple Selection Criteria

The approach and techniques described herein define an optimization and evaluation approach for a liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen single-stage-to-orbit system. The method uses Monte Carlo simulations, genetic algorithm solvers, a propulsion thermo-chemical code, power series regression curves for historical data, and statistical models in order to optimize a vehicle system. The system, including parameters for engine chamber pressure, area ratio, and oxidizer/fuel ratio, was modeled and optimized to determine the best design for seven separate design weight and cost cases by varying design and technology parameters. Significant model results show that a 53% increase in Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost results in a 67% reduction in Gross Liftoff Weight. Other key findings show the sensitivity of propulsion parameters, technology factors, and cost factors and how these parameters differ when cost and weight are optimized separately. Each of the three key propulsion parameters; chamber pressure, area ratio, and oxidizer/fuel ratio, are optimized in the seven design cases and results are plotted to show impacts to engine mass and overall vehicle mass

Understanding the Lunar System Architecture Design Space

Based on the flexible path strategy and the desire of the international community, the lunar surface remains a destination for future human exploration. This paper explores options within the lunar system architecture design space, identifying performance requirements placed on the propulsive system that performs Earth departure within that architecture based on existing and/or near-term capabilities. The lander crew module and ascent stage propellant mass fraction are primary drivers for feasibility in multiple lander configurations. As the aggregation location moves further out of the lunar gravity well, the lunar lander is required to perform larger burns, increasing the sensitivity to these two factors. Adding an orbit transfer stage to a two-stage lunar lander and using a large storable stage for braking with a one-stage lunar lander enable higher aggregation locations than Low Lunar Orbit. Finally, while using larger vehicles enables a larger feasible design space, there are still feasible scenarios that use three launches of smaller vehicles

Horizontal Launch: A Versatile Concept for Assured Space Access

The vision of horizontal launch is the capability to provide a mobile launch pad that can use existing aircraft runways, cruise above weather, loiter for mission instructions, and achieve precise placement for orbital intercept, rendezvous, or reconnaissance. Another compelling benefit of horizontal launch is that today s ground-based vertical launch pads are a single earthquake, hurricane, or terrorist attack away from disruption of critical U.S. launch capabilities. The study did not attempt to design a new system concept for horizontal launch, but rather focused on the refinement of many previously-studied horizontal launch concepts. Because of the large number of past horizontal launch studies, a process was developed to narrow the number of concepts through prescreening, screening, and evaluation of point designs. The refinement process was not intended to select the "best" concept, but rather to establish the feasibility of horizontal launch from a balanced assessment of figures of merit and to identify potential concepts that warrant further exploration

NASA Langley Systems Analysis & Concepts Directorate Technology Assessment/Portfolio Analysis

Systems analysis develops and documents candidate mission and architectures, associated system concepts, enabling capabilities and investment strategies to achieve NASA s strategic objectives. The technology assessment process connects the mission and architectures to the investment strategies. In order to successfully implement a technology assessment, there is a need to collect, manipulate, analyze, document, and disseminate technology-related information. Information must be collected and organized on the wide variety of potentially applicable technologies, including: previous research results, key technical parameters and characteristics, technology readiness levels, relationships to other technologies, costs, and potential barriers and risks. This information must be manipulated to facilitate planning and documentation. An assessment is included of the programmatic and technical risks associated with each technology task as well as potential risk mitigation plans. Risks are assessed and tracked in terms of likelihood of the risk occurring and consequences of the risk if it does occur. The risk assessments take into account cost, schedule, and technical risk dimensions. Assessment data must be simplified for presentation to decision makers. The Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center has a wealth of experience in performing Technology Assessment and Portfolio Analysis as this has been a business line since 1978

The Apollo Lunar Orbit Rendezvous Architecture Decision Revisited

This conference features the work of authors from: Georgia Tech’s Space Systems Design Lab, Aerospace Systems Design Lab, School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Tech Research Institute; NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Marshall Space Flight Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, Langley Research Center; and other aerospace industry and academic institutionsThe 1962 Apollo architecture mode decision process was revisited with modern analysis and systems engineer tools to determine driving selection criteria and technology/operational mode design decisions that may be used for NASA’s current Space Exploration program. Results of the study agreed with the Apollo selection of the Lunar Orbit Rendezvous mode based on the technology maturity and politics in 1962. Using today’s greater emphasis on human safety and improvements in technology and design maturity, a slight edge may be given to the direct lunar mode over lunar orbit rendezvous. Also, the NOVA direct mode and Earth orbit rendezvous mode are not competitive based any selection criteria. Finally, reliability and development, operations, and production costs are major drivers in today’s decision process.AIAA Space Systems Technical Committee ; AIAA Space Transportation Systems Technical Committee ; Space Technology Advanced Research Cente

Entry, Descent and Landing Systems Analysis Study: Phase 1 Report

NASA senior management commissioned the Entry, Descent and Landing Systems Analysis (EDL-SA) Study in 2008 to identify and roadmap the Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) technology investments that the agency needed to make in order to successfully land large payloads at Mars for both robotic and human-scale missions. This paper summarizes the motivation, approach and top-level results from Year 1 of the study, which focused on landing 10-50 mt on Mars, but also included a trade study of the best advanced parachute design for increasing the landed payloads within the EDL architecture of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) missio